 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
RAPID RESPONSE Comments (Normally available by subscription)...
HERE ARE A FEW ECONOMIC NEWS ITEMS ABOUT WHICH I RECENTLY COMMENTED.
CV Econ re PI, PCE, ISM, and Construction for December/January (2/2/09):
1. The numbers, part 1. Personal income for December fell 0.2% sequentially while personal consumption expenditures retreated another 1.0%. But prices also retreated in December (again). With adjustments for inflation, real disposable income increased 0.3% and the reduction of consumer spending was reduced to 0.5%. The core PCE Price Index was unchanged, but the total price index for all consumer spending dropped another 0.5%.
2. The numbers, part 2. The Institute for Supply Management said that its composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January rose 2.7 points (a positive surprise!).
3. The numbers, part 3. Construction spending for December fell 1.4%, perhaps a bit worse than expected. Private residential construction spending plunged 3.2%, the value of private nonresidential construction put in place dipped 0.4%, and public construction expenditures receded 0.8%.
4. It’s Ground Hog Day! Pepper Pike Pete saw his shadow so there will be at least six more weeks of recession.
5. Saving for a snowy day. One of the remarkable findings of the PI/PCE report is the dramatic rise of personal savings. The first point: there IS savings! Dissecting that, it is not because there is more income; wages and salaries decreased. But personal outlays declined much more. And where was most of the fall-off? Nondurable goods. What does that include. Energy items! Bingo! Much of the resources freed up by lower oil and gasoline prices is being saved. The personal saving rate increased from 2.8% in November to 3.6% in December, and is up from 0% in April—a remarkable rise in such a short period of time.
6. Implications? Consumers have chips when their confidence improves—but they need a catalyst to cause them to uncork their savings.
7. Tell the untold story! In spite of the recession, real disposable income is up 1.3% y/y (ending December). Households have regained much of the purchasing power lost to higher energy prices over the last couple of years. It is coming at a particularly good time, and this could help soften the recession blow from all the financial market turmoil. (But the pick-up from lower oil prices has just about run its course.)
8. Devil takes the hindmost. Personal income fell $25.3B in December but “current taxes” inched just $0.2B lower. For Q4, personal income dropped $35.3B while current taxes increased $29.6B. What is wrong with this picture?
9. Profit problems. Nonfarm proprietors’ income (small business profits) decreased in December (-$5.9B) and in Q4 (-$13.6B). This could be an indication of big profit problems at the large corporate level.
10. Manufacturing increases? Not! A pick-up of the PMI (along with a 10 point pick-up in orders and a 6 point rise of the production component) is welcomed, but still indicative of a pretty steep decline in manufacturing. The patient may be off the respirator, but is still in intensive care. Maybe the extremely negative influence of “de-stocking,” layered on top of just weak economic demands, is beginning to let up. So maybe the rate of decline of factories is easing up. [Some analysts last week made much of the inventory accumulation, and the attendant 1.3 percent contribution to the GDP figures last week. The case should not be overstated for an unwanted accumulation of inventories. They went up a scant $6B after physically falling in 6 of the prior 7 quarters. They are NOT “bloated.”]
11. Price vacuum? Prices on net are still retreating, but here again, the rate of decline is diminishing. That’s a necessary precursor to finding a bottom. (The Prices component jumped 11 point in December, to 29.0.)
12. Trading places. The export (37.5, +2.0) and import (36.5, -2.5) components were quite soft. There is a recession here, and there are recessions abroad.
13. Public fiasco? Public spending projects are being shelved as state and local municipal budgets slide deeper into the red. There are just two hopes: stimulus plan and recovery.
14. Flimsy foundations. Residential construction spending is still plunging. Pretty soon the big builders will be doing little more than twiddling their thumbs. But since this activity is already so low, the subtraction from GDP is not that great. (I just hope they have enough capital to survive a slack period; what lender is going to advance a big slug or credit, or even roll debt in this climate?) Nonresidential construction spending has started to recede, but unlike residential construction, most of its decline is in front of us (i.e., in 2009).
--------------
Here is my quick take re GDP for 2008:Q4:
1. The numbers. The nation’s GDP (essentially, “the economy”) receded at a 3.8% annualized rate; this was somewhat BETTER than the expected 5+% contraction. The total GDP price index inched 0.1% lower, the total personal consumption expenditure price index plunged down at a 5.5% rate, but the core (ex food and energy PCE) index grew 0.6%.
2. Details (inflation-adjusted % changes at annual rates, except where noted):
Consumer spending = -3.5%;
Nonresidential investment, structures = -1.8%;
Nonresidential investment, equipment and software = -27.8% (!);
Residential investment = -23.6%;
Change in inventories = +$6.2B (this compares to a $29.6B drawdown in Q3, so the contribution to GDP was $35.8, or +1.32 percentage points);
Exports = -19.7% (it’s a WORLD recession!);
Imports = -15.7%; net exports fell $3.3B;
Government consumption (which is different from government spending) = +1.9%.
3. The first of how many? While coming in somewhat better than expected, this was the largest percentage decline of GDP since 1982:Q1 (= -6.4%). Although people have been talking about “recession” for a long time, and the economy has been in a declared recession for a year (since December 2007), this is the first significant decline of the economy. How many more quarters of big declines are likely? 2009:Q1 is virtually a given (about the same order of magnitude of contraction). But past then you can note some positive things. Housing and autos are already at bottom levels, so their subtractions should diminish. Starting in Q2, the economy should begin to see material impact from the gargantuan stimulus package. Hence, these factors could initial stem and then reverse the economy’s turn down.
4. What about those inventories? They increased in volume terms in Q4. But they did not increase much. And that increase came after falling in 6 of the last 7 quarters. Therefore, I am not worried that inventories are “bloated.” But there will probably be further inventory drawdowns, invoking more production cutbacks, over the next few quarters (and thus, further subtractions from GDP, relative to Q4). That is the nature of recessions.
5. THEIR burden. Imports fell at a 15.7% rate. This is stuff that was included in the consumer and capital spending categories. The point: other economies are shouldering a good part of the burden of slower spending in the U.S.
6. A tale of two governments. ALL the increase in government purchases was at the federal level (+5.8%). State and local government budgets are being pinched by the recession, and therefore, their purchases are being curbed (-0.5%). The only thing that will change this pattern in the short term are federal grants-in-aid to states and municipalities, as a part of the big stimulus plan. Otherwise, state and local spending is handcuffed.
7. In the fine print. Real disposable personal income grew 3.3% in Q4! Consumers just socked it away, generating some chips for the future. What will be the catalyst that will reinstate confidence and uncork this buying power???
8. Feeling pressured? Inflation is not going to be a problem for awhile. This may be the only positive byproduct of recessions. Broad based inflation usually troughs after recessions.
9. A screeching halt. Motor vehicles/parts subtracted $30.3B from GDP in Q3 and $42.8B in Q4. This was about half the overall drop in consumer spending over this period and more than twice the subtraction from residential investment. You want to get this economy moving again? Do something to restore confidence in the car buying public (like making auto credit available on reasonable terms).
10. Just a reminder. In what is popularly proclaimed as the “worst recession since the Great Depression,” or even GDII (Great Depression II), the economy is down just 0.2% over the last year. Will it get worse? Surely, but let’s try to maintain some objectivity here.
--------------
Here’s my quick take re December housing starts (1/22/09):
1. The numbers. Housing starts fell 15.5% for December, to a 550k unit pace (lowest on record). Building permits came in at a 549k unit annualized rate, down 10.7%.
2. 2008. New homebuilding in 2008 came in like a lamb and went out like a mouse.
3. Boy, is this an apt metaphor. When you are in a hole, stop digging. Home completions are running at a 1015k unit rate. With housing starts now running more than a million units below a long run sustainable pace (based on CV Econ analysis), homebuilders took this advice to heart.
4. Maybe a bottom? There could be some extra (beyond normal) weather disruptions in January. But mortgage rates are extremely low, and there has been a pick-up in application activity. Housing affordability, which reflects incomes, cheaper mortgages, and falling home prices, is extremely strong. And the Fed has added some liquidity to the mortgage market. As we put more distance between the frightful September credit disruptions and the November swoon of stock prices, more homebuyers may be willing to venture forth. We could be at the bottom level of activity.
5. Extra. Initial claims for unemployment compensation increased 62k, to 589k, for the week ending 1/17. We are at a cyclical high, and the declines in past weeks probably had much to do with holiday disruptions. And new layoffs—which may have been on hold—have come now that the holidays are past. But on an economy-employment size-adjusted basis, the current level of initial claims are still hundreds of thousands below what was seen in 1982, a deep recession.
-----------------
Here’s my quick take re the PPI for December 2008 (1/15/09):
Here’s my quick take…
1. The numbers. The PPI for Finished Goods fell another 1.9% in December. (But now, the rate of decline is decelerating.) Ex food and energy, these prices were up 0.2%. The y/y for the total is now negative: -0.9%. Other results: the PPI for Intermediate Goods plunged 4.2% (core = -3.0%) and the Crude Goods PPI retreated 5.3% (core = -2.2%). The y/y on Intermediate and Crude prices were also in the red (-1.7% and -25.0%, respectively).
2. Lesson. Prices can fall just as fast as they increase, or even faster!
3. Deflation of disinflation? Why aren’t core Finished Goods prices falling? They may yet, but the price weakness is not very broad. The price weakness is more concentrated in the commodity-related stuff. This smells more like disinflation than deflation.
4. Leveling out? And the core crude price reductions do seem to be leveling out (December = -2.2% versus November = -20.4%.) Now there is considerable previous and current price weakness that will be working its way up the supply chain, but at the bottom of the supply chain, some bottoms may be close. That might be saying something about the economy at large, too.
5. Extra: initial claims for unemployment compensation… Increased 54k, to 524k, for the week ending 1/10. So the 2-week drop below 500k was something of a holiday-induced fiction. But still, the accumulation of unfilled holiday claims did not drive the total above the previous peak. Interesting. And remember, these claims are running only about one-half the level seen in 1982, on an size-of-labor-markets-adjusted basis.
-----------------------------
Here’s my quick take re the international tradefor November 2008 (1/13/09):
Here’s my quick take:
1. The numbers. The trade deficit on goods and services plummeted $16.3B from October (to $40.4B). Yes, that is the biggest decline on record, by far. Exports fell $8.7B but imports plunged $25.0B. The monthly trade deficits peaked out in 2005 at $67B/month (an annual rate of $804B) and are now down to $40B (which annualizes to $480B). We come a long way, and there is more to go.
2. Now that’s what I am talking about! As the monthly average price of imported oil declined from $92.02/barrel in October to $66.72/barrel for November, the value of imported petroleum products nosedived $16B. The $22B value of oil imports for November is down 58% from July. And we are not “there” yet!. We could witness another halving of the oil import bill. I said a few months ago that the bottom would be falling out of the trade deficit, and it is now happening.
3. Now for the bad news. The real (inflation-adjusted) value of exports in November was down about 6.5% (simple, NOT compounded) from the Q3 average. Foreign economies are folding like cheap lawn chairs. They better get their stimulus plans up and running! What was long a major source of output and job growth in the U.S. is reversing, and will now be part of the contracting economy. The December trade figures will NOT be available for the first round of Q4 GDP estimates. If one does a little arithmetic on the current numbers, assuming the real trade deficit for December will equal November’s, it looks like net foreign trade will be a slight ($8-10B) subtraction in Q4. (a $10B change would amount to a 0.34 percentage point change in GDP at current levels.)
4. Their burdens. The inflation-adjusted, seasonally adjusted value of consumer goods exports fell 1.7% in November but the value of consumer goods imports receded 9.4%. I’ve said this, too: A major portion of the U.S. consumer spending slowdown (as reflected by retail sales or personal consumption expenditures) is being borne by foreign producers and foreign economies. (What consumer goods imports fell the most? Pharmaceuticals, TVs/VCRs, other HH goods, toys, and HH appliances.)
5. Funny business. U.S. imports from China fell 12.5% but U.S. exports to China dropped 14%. And now they have halted the upward-crawling yuan-dollar peg in spite of the fact that we still ran a $23B deficit with China in November. I think China will continue to be very glad to get dollars from our trade deficit with them and find some way to invest them. The yen has appreciated tremendously in recent months and now Toyota has recorded a loss (but the monthly trade deficit with Japan is still $5B). My guess is that the Japanese will soon be up to some funny business, too.
6. No soup for you! With the trade deficit falling so drastically, the financing that the U.S. needs to get from foreign savers is diminishing. In fact, foreign investors may desire to invest more than this quantity in the U.S. as a safe haven and as an economy that now may possess more opportunities. Such demands could drive the dollar higher, leading to a capital account-driven rebound of the trade deficit.
7. Foreign call center activity is down. The imports of “other private services” dipped a bit in November, but so too did exports of the same (enrollments of foreign college students?).
-------------------------------
Here’s my take re employment for December 2008 (1/9/08):
Only Halfway There
PEPPER PIKE, OH—January 9, 2009. The recession stripped another 524k jobs from nonfarm payrolls in December. But according to individuals, the results were worse: the Household Survey indicated a 806k loss of employment and an 632k increase in unemployment. With 380k persons dropping out of the labor force, this resulted in a 0.4 percentage point rise of the jobless rate, to 7.4%. Nonfarm payrolls now stand 1.9% below its peak level from December 2007. Payrolls dropped 2.8% from the peak level in the 1973-75 recession and 3.1% from the 1981-82 recession.
The ranks of the employed were ravaged across a broad range of industries. Manufacturers shed 149k jobs; construction employment fell by 101k; service-providing sectors trimmed their rosters by a total of 273k workers. Of the broad employment categories, jobs gains were registered in just the education/health services and government areas. At a fine level of detail, only 24.1% of 274 industries saw jobs increase over the past three months (for manufacturing, just 14.3% of 84 saw job gains).
The employment situation in December was actually somewhat worse than the headlines read. The average workweek fell 0.2 hours, to 33.3 hours per week. This is a 0.9% loss of labor input into the economy from the entire private sector labor force. An additional 600k workers (now up to 8.0 million) were employed part-time for economic reasons. Average hourly earnings grew 0.3% for December, but this is probably due to a disproportionate loss of lower-paying jobs causing the average to rise.
· Recessions hurt! “The massive loss of jobs is tragic, and unfortunately, is going to spread and touch many more families. Mr. Economy is teaching America cruel lessons of what happens when greed rules, policymakers don’t get it right the first time, and regulatory oversight comes up short.”
· Time compression? “Everything in this information-internet world seems to be happening quicker. It may be the case that the recessionary job cuts are happening faster, and we’ll get to the bottom sooner. For example, instead of seeing 250k per month payroll reductions occur over 12 months we may see 500k job looses occur over 6 months. Seeing the larger job losses may make the situation look worse than it in fact is.”
· Connect these dots. “The colossal loss of jobs is going to generate a host of social problems. Consider the number of families that are losing health care benefits with the loss of employment. The ballooning of the uninsured, and the injustice of addressing ‘pre-existing conditions’ as coverage is changed could intensify the call for universal health care insurance coverage and be the catalyst for action.”
· Stratification. “The pains of recession are not equally shared. The unemployment rate of those with bachelor’s degrees or higher was 3.7% in December versus 10.9% for those with less than a high school diploma.”
· Where is the justice? “Temporary help employment plunged 80,900 in December while jobs at commercial banks inched just 1,300 positions lower!!! Real estate jobs were down just 1k, too.”
###
---------------------------------
Here’s my quick take re the ISM non-mfg for December 2008 and Factory Orders for November (1/6/08):
1. The number’s, part 1. New orders for manufactured goods in November plunged 4.6% (or $18.7B). Shipments decreased 5.3%, unfilled orders declined 0.6%, and inventories edged down 0.3%.
2. READ THIS. The headlines suggest that the bottom is falling out, but one must back out orders/shipments at petroleum refineries. They fell 22%, thus subtracting $9.6B off November orders and shipments. Since this is mostly price-related, to a rough approximation, this is how much benefit consumer and business users of refined products are enjoying from lower prices!
3. Don’t get me wrong. Shipments and orders were WEAK in November, just only about half as weak as the headline numbers suggests. There were continued big problems with autos (shipments = -2.4%); there were problems with housing-related areas (HH appliances = -8.7% and furniture = -2.6%); even high tech continues to struggle (shipments = -4.5%).
4. Two themes. One theme underlying these numbers is the “deer in the headlights” response to the banking industry meltdown and credit freeze. Things just stopped. The second theme is “de-stocking,” the conscious effort to get inventories down in anticipation of much weaker economic conditions in the future. These are not permanent conditions; they are transitory. The banking system, while still not functioning normally, is on the mend, and eventually, inventories will be where they need to be.
5. Something to think about. A HUGE fiscal stimulus plan WILL soon be legislated—maybe 3% of GDP (spread over two years). At some point in the not-too-distant-future, consumers are going to show up with checks in hand to make purchases, and construction companies will be needing shipments to support all those shovel-ready infrastructure projects that will be enabled by The Package. Will those demands face empty shelves?
6. The number’s, part 2. The ISM non-mfg composite PMI measure gained 3.3 points (to 40.6) and the activity measure (akin to production) jumped 6.6 points (to 39.6).
7. A thaw? Keep in mind that these are numbers for December. The credit freeze had eased somewhat. The “deer in the headlights” effect is perhaps beginning to fade. Consumers seem to be saving most of the lowered costs of gasoline, but some of that may be creeping into discretionary spending. No doubt about it, the ISM non-mfg results still represent recessionary conditions: orders, employment, and exports are all receding, but just not at the rate seen in November (when the full brunt of the credit freeze was felt). I’ve hypothesized that October and November may prove to be the worst months of the recession, and further, that it would be mistaken to extrapolate decline based on them. (But I still expect recessionary declines to unfold in upcoming months, just not at the October-November rate.) This is fragmentary evidence in support of that hypothesis.
----------------------------------
Here’s my quick take re the December FOMC meeting (12/16/08):
1. What the FOMC did. First, they kept us waiting for a few extra minutes! Hmmm. That’s strange; maybe something unusual is coming down the pike. The FOMC decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0% to 0.25%. (The Board of Governors also cut the discount rate three-quarters of a percentage point, to 0.50%.) The vote on this policy move was unanimous.
2. Not your father’s FOMC statement! The Fed has shown some real imagination here, as well as practicality. The Fed has shoveled in so much liquidity into the system that in any practical sense it will be difficult to tightly control the federal funds rate to some specific target. For November, with a 1% target, the actual average of the fed funds rate turned out to be 0.39%.
3. Does it get any easier than this? The Fed is pulling out ALL the stops, period. “The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.” There is a strong recession bias, and on top of that, a credit crunch, so there is no need to even begin to think about when rates might rise again. [Oh, the answer to the question is, “NO.”]
4. Get on board or get out of the way. “…the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant.” AND “Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity.” This is the Fed acting as “lender of last resort” to a degree never seen before. This is a giant step. If the market will not function, the Fed will be the market!
5. Why? It’s all about confidence. The economy cannot even begin to be healed until the credit markets are healed, which is to say, reasonably credit worthy consumers and small business can reasonably expect to have their basic credit needs met at their local financial institution. The Fed is attempting to lead by example. It is betting that the credit markets follow. Once the normal functioning of the credit markets are restored, then the Fed can fade, left.
6. Does the “prime rate” price in a range, too? (That’s a joke.) No, it can’t. It will probably be reduced 75 bps, not 100 bps. Still, that makes prime-based financing for C&I loans and HELOC loans that typically price off the prime rate very cheap.
7. Pipe dream. What if the Fed did all this in September 2007?
8. Nagging concern. Inflation is not the concern today, but once credit market functioning is restored and the economy begins to recover, there is one hell of a whipsaw out there!
----------------------------------------
Here’s my quick take re the ISM for December 2008 (1/2/08):
1. The numbers. The summary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) dove another 3.8 points (to 32.4), sending it to the lowest level seen since June 1980. According to ISM analysis, the December figure, if sustained, would be consistent with GDP growth of -2.7%.
2. Hangover from 2008. Most forecasters already have something around a -4% GDP estimate for Q4, so the December PMI reading should not come as a major surprise. In fact, it could weaken further, based on ISM calculations. That’s the point. EXPECT to see a bunch of very negative economic indicator readings in coming weeks: auto sales, payrolls, retail sales, industrial production, exports, and factory orders.
3. Whether report. If there is any silver lining to this very dark storm cloud, perhaps it lies in the breathtaking speed of the adjustments being undertaken. From the onset of major weakness, starting in August, management was very quick to pull the trigger in adjusting its major business behaviors: ordering, hiring, production scheduling, capital spending, and inventory management. Attribute it to better management, management information systems in an information age, or having the daylights scared out of them by the credit crunch. But the hypothesis is that time is being compressed, and with recessions being about adjustments, the adjustments will be done quicker. Sure, we are going to see a deep recession, but the question is, whether from here it will be a long recession?
4. In the category of, “you think you have problems.” The export component of the survey (35.5, ch = -5.5) was weaker than the import component (39.0, ch = +1.5). Clearly, there are a number of recessions abroad, and they may be worse than ours.
5. Now hiring? No. NOT hiring. The employment component of the index is down to 29.9, its lowest level since November 1982. But then, the unemployment rate was 10.8%. In November 2008, it was 6.7%. (I think this supports the case of time compression.)
6. Negative pricing power. The Prices Index hit 18.0%, the lowest since June 1949. Inflation is last year’s problem. Maybe it will be a problem in 2010. But it is not going to be a problem for much of 2009. These price declines will be bubbling up the supply chain. Just remember, slightly more than half of the CPI is services, not goods, and service prices are heavily influenced by wages. Will wages decline in 2009? Slower growth, yes, but probably not decline.
--------------------------------
Here’s my quick take re the Durable Goods Orders/Shipments and Personal Income and Spending for November 2008 (12/24/08):
1. The numbers, part 1. Durable goods orders for November contracted 1.0%. Shipments plummeted 2.6%.
2. Shutting down the pipeline. That’s what these numbers scream. Primary metal shipments fell 7.6%; computer/electronic products shipments retreated 4.2%, and electrical equipment/appliance shipments caved in 6.5%. The goal: to keep inventories from backing up (“de=stocking”). How did business do? They fell short of goals: total durable goods industry inventories in November rose 0.5%. BUT in the three industries mentioned—with huge reductions in shipments—inventories declined.
3. A capital idea? Nondefense capital goods orders and shipments—often thought of reflecting as reflecting business investments in equipment—both decreased modestly in November. A ray of hope that it is not a complete rout: nondefense, non-aircraft capital goods orders increased 4.7% in November (but after falling 6.6% in October and 3.4% in September).
4. No rest for the weary. Motor vehicle/parts orders dipped 0.2% and shipments inched up just 0.1%. Inventories orders were worked down 1.4% (that’s good), but unfilled orders (future new business) shrunk 2.2%. On the margin, thing look slightly worse.
5. The numbers, part 2. Personal income fell back 0.2% in November. Personal consumption expenditures were reduced by 0.6%.
6. READ THIS! The headline PI/PCE figures read bad, but prices retreated rapidly in November. The overall PCE price index collapsed 1.1%--the largest decline on record. Lower prices makes incomes stretch farther. With inflation adjustments, consumer spending actually increased 0.6% in volume terms. And disposable income jumped 1.0% in inflation-adjusted terms. These numbers move the needle in the Q4 GDP calculations! (A smaller contraction of consumer spending than previously expected; a sizable decline of the GDP price index; and a surprisingly large increase in real disposable income.)
7. Socking it away. Because of falling prices, real disposable income has increased 1.7% in just two months—a very welcomed recovery of previously lost purchasing power. And what are consumers doing with their “gas cash?” They are saving it: the personal saving rate has risen from 1.2% in September to 2.4% in October to 2.8% in November. (But as a leading indicator, a rising personal saving rate is a negative indication for the economy—a sign decreasing confidence.)
8. Technical note. Weekly initial claims for unemployment compensation increased 30k to 586k for the week ending 12/20. No question, these figures are high. But it is misleading, at a minimum, to compare these with figures with past recessionary times, because the workforce back then was considerably smaller. In essence, a smaller workforce has less potential to produce initial claims. IF past claims are adjusted for workforce differences, then weekly initial claims rose above 600k in the 1990-91 recession, above 900k in the 1973-75 recession, and above 1 million in the 1981-82 recession. Compare apples to apples! Not adjusting the economy for its scale is an amateurish mistake.
###
